Brewed Fresh Daily

Last year, one of my favorite urban bloggers, who goes by the name ‘Car Free in Big D’, did a brilliant analysis of what downtown Dallas might ultimately become. He begins by drawing attention to this statistic from Alan Ehrenhalt’s demographic inversion piece in The New Republic:

Race is not always the critical issue, or even especially relevant, in this demographic shift. Before September 11, 2001, the number of people living in Manhattan south of the World Trade Center was estimated at about 25,000. Today, it is approaching 50,000.

The key is that, unlike elsewhere in Manhattan, the Financial District hasn’t historically been a place where people thought about living. Like downtowns in most cities, it served as a central business district, a place where many people went to work, while residing elsewhere. It’s not just about the raw numbers. Yes, 50,000 people is an incredible number to have in any downtown business district; but it’s also about the pace and the fact that a doubling occurred in less than a decade.

Car Free in Big D goes on to overlay an outline of NYC’s financial district (perhaps being a bit generous and including some pieces of Battery Park and Chinatown) onto a map of downtown Dallas, a concept which I’ve copied and performed for Cleveland.

First, using only the map view:

And again, using the map/satellite hybrid view:

If there’s any reason to believe this is at all possible in Cleveland, it’s for similar reasons that it’s happening in Lower Manhattan. Again, from Ehrenhalt’s article:

It is not mere fantasy to imagine that in, say, 2020, the southern tip of Manhattan will be a residential neighborhood with a modest residual presence of financial corporations and financial services jobs. What’s happening in Lower Manhattan isn’t exactly an inversion in the Chicago sense: Expensive condos are replacing offices, not poor people. But it is dramatic demographic change nevertheless.

If there is one thing that Cleveland has in excess supply, it’s class-B and class-C office space downtown.

One last disclaimer, before you respond to blast me for how unrealistic this all sounds, or for how unfair it is to compare Cleveland to New York or Dallas or cities of a different caliber, or for ignoring the fact that Cleveland’s leadership lacks the competence or vision to make it happen, please understand that I know. I’ve titled the post a downtown ‘fantasy’ for that very reason – it’s my dream for Cleveland, an idea fueled exclusively by hope, with a small shred of evidence that it’s not entirely impossible. CSU’s Tom Bier appeared as a guest on the Sound of Ideas on Monday and predicted that downtown Cleveland won’t reach a population of 30,000 for another 20 or 30 or 40 years. Reality aside, that’s a pretty frustrating prediction for those of us who wish for a robust 24-hour downtown Cleveland while we’re still young.

Last 5 posts by Rob Pitingolo

• The Cleveland International Film Festival: Thinking Ahead - March 29th, 2010
• Omitted Variable Bias - February 18th, 2010
• Deciphering Another Nonsense Forbes List - February 10th, 2010
• Put a Nail in RTA's Coffin - November 17th, 2009
• Modeling RTA Ridership - October 18th, 2009

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